Vliv válečných konfliktů na ceny akcií zbrojařských společností

This master’s thesis examines the impact of selected armed conflicts on the share prices of defence companies. Using a market-model-based event study, it analyses the stock price reactions of Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Saab, Rheinmetall and Colt CZ Group to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas attack on Israel. The results show that the Russian invasion triggered a strong and broad-based positive market reaction, with the cumulative abnormal returns of all five companies being statistically significant at the 1% level within the [-3; +3] event window. By contrast, the reaction to the Hamas attack was considerably weaker and statistically significant only for Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall, both at the 10% level. The average cumulative abnormal return reached 29,10% following the Russian invasion, compared with 4,55% following the Hamas attack. A robustness analysis using a shorter event window confirmed the main economic interpretation of the results and also revealed differences in the timing of investors’ reactions.