Komparace fiskální politiky zemí Visegrádské skupiny a její dopady na makroekonomickou stabilitu v letech 2019–2024

The thesis compares the fiscal policies of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia over the period 2019–2024, focusing on their cyclical orientation, macroeconomic developments and the state of public finances. The analysis draws on harmonised data from Eurostat, the OECD and the International Monetary Fund and takes into account differences in the countries' initial conditions as well as the extraordinary economic shocks occurring during the period under review. The main contribution of the thesis lies in combining macroeconomic and fiscal indicators within a comparative framework, classifying the cyclical orientation of fiscal stance using the output gap and changes in the underlying primary balance, assessing the conditions of debt dynamics and synthesising the fiscal trajectories of the individual countries. The results show that fiscal stance is countercyclical in all four countries in 2020, while its orientation differs considerably in subsequent years. Procyclical changes prevail in Hungary and countercyclical changes in Slovakia, whereas Czechia and Poland record an equal number of both types. The comparison does not identify any country as achieving the most favourable results across all dimensions examined. Czechia ends the period with the lowest public debt and the lowest general government deficit within the V4, but at the same time records the largest increase in its debt-to-GDP ratio compared with 2019. The results highlight the importance of the timing of fiscal measures, rebuilding fiscal space after extraordinary shocks subside and jointly assessing the cyclical and debt position of the economy. The comparative approach identifies associations between fiscal stance and macroeconomic developments rather than causal relationships.