Plánování optimální zemědělské produkce při různých klimatických scénářích

Every year, farms seek the optimum structure of plant and animal production while maximizing profits. The dissertation proposes a model to support the decision-making of farms in planning their production under different climate scenarios. The model integrates macroeconomic (the impact of the agricultural commodity market) and the microeconomic view (business processes) on agriculture. The output of the model is mainly the optimal structure of plant production, the structure of the herd of cattle and the sequence of the sown areas. The production planning optimization model is linked to econometric models that predict the evolution of agricultural commodity market prices, crop cost developments and the impacts of the selected climate scenarios on crop yields. Crop yield prediction models assume persistence effect of climate variables on yield – more precisely the effect of long droughts eventually with gusty rain in the past and current vegetative period. The model also takes into account the geographical location of the farm, the crop rotation cycles, the rules of keeping the turnover of the herd of cattle and other restrictions of the farm resulting from its disposition and interconnection of realized activities. Crop yield prediction models are constructed using short panel data methods. Models of short-term price predictions are based on the delayed linear regression model, while short-term crop cost prediction models are autoregressive time series models. All prediction models show high prediction accuracy. Econometric forecasts of yields, prices and costs of considered crops represent the parameters of the profit function in the production planning optimization model. A sub-optimization model of crop rotation is integrated in the main model using goal programming methods. The model is tested on real farm data. The heterogeneity of the regions is analyzed on the optimization model outputs of the same farm type for the Pilsen, Liberec and Olomouc regions. The model allows analysis of the impacts of different climate scenarios on optimal production. The thesis contains simulations of impacts of four probable climate scenarios on production structure and profitability of a sample farm in all regions of the Czech Republic.