Kurzový závazek ČNB v letech 2013-2017 a jeho makroekonomická implikace

The aim of this diploma thesis is to analyze the exchange rate commitment conducted by CNB in period of 2013-2017 and evaluate its effects on inflation, real economy, international trade and on CNB´s financial statement. Based on the results of macroeconomic analysis, a decision about exchange rate commitment made by board of CNB is overall positively evaluated since the main purpose of this action - to prevent the risk of deflation - has been fulfilled. Although the exchange rate commitment supposedly contributed to economic growth and recovery and supported export as well, its general impact should not be overestimated in both cases. It is necessary to take into consideration that a change of monitored macroeconomic aggregates depends on other factors, too, which complicates a determination of a direct effect of the commitment and makes the analysis very difficult. The impact of the commitment on CNB´s financial statement depends not only on the fact that during its period of validity a significant volume of foreign exchange reserves has been accumulated, but also on the successful strategy of CNB to invest these reserves at financial market. Considering all the time circumstances, the conclusion of the thesis is that CNB acted rationally and succeeded to keep its credibility in challenging and difficult post crisis period.