Fundamentální analýza vývoje měnové kurzu CZK/EUR v dlouhém období

The bachelor’s thesis focuses on the analysis of a long-term development of the CZK/EUR exchange rate and identification of its most significant long-term determinants. Theoretical part summarizes selected concepts related to the determination of exchange rate value over long-term period and analyses intended exchange rate systems. In the empirical part, relationship between the development of intended currency pair and selected economic indicators over a long-term period is examined using econometric methods, particularly cointegration analysis, vector error correction models, Granger causality tests, and unit root tests. Results, summarized in the concluding section, confirm validity of most tested theoretical concepts on the example of CZK/EUR exchange rate. Special attention is given to structural breakpoints in the long-term development of domestic currency pair. Thesis highlights the importance of linking theoretical approaches with empirical analysis in the context of a small open economy.