Analýza japonského akciového trhu

This bachelor thesis analyses the historical development and current state of the Japanese stock market with a focus on the TOPIX index. The aim of the thesis is to identify the main factors influencing its performance and to make a prediction of its future development. Time series of macroeconomic and market data over the last 30 years were used to determine the influence of each variable. Based on multiple linear regression, the study concludes that TOPIX is unlikely to exceed its historical performance over the next five years. The results indicate a continuation of steady moderate growth, with the exception of weaker performance in the first forecast year due to expected tightening of monetary policy. At the same time, the analysis reveals the diverging performance of market segments and the importance of institutional interventions. In a regional and global context, the Japanese market maintains its position as a stable and trustworthy investment destination.