Discount rate in investment decision-making: selecting the rate in the Czech Real Estate sector during a period of economic instability

This master’s thesis examines the determination of the discount rate for investment decision-making in the Czech real estate sector during a period of economic instability. The thesis aims to compare an academically derived discount rate based on WACC and CAPM with a market-implied discount rate inferred from prime yields for office properties. The empirical analysis focuses on the Prague office market over the period 2014–2024 and uses secondary data. The methodology involves calculating both rates, comparing their evolution over time, conducting correlation analysis of selected macroeconomic and market variables, and decomposing changes in the academic rate. The results indicate that the academic and market-implied discount rates represent distinct yet complementary constructs of required return. The academic rate is more sensitive to macro-financial factors, in particular the risk-free rate, inflation, and the cost of debt, whereas the market-implied rate more strongly reflects real-estate fundamentals, especially the vacancy rate and conditions in the office market. The thesis concludes that, in periods of heightened economic uncertainty, investment decision-making should rely on a combination of both approaches rather than on a single universal discount rate.