CBDC a Bitcoin: soukromí a dopady na bankovní sektor

This thesis analyzes central bank digital currencies (CBDC) and Bitcoin as two qualitatively distinct forms of competition for commercial banks and examines their impacts on the banking sector and user privacy. The thesis draws on an analysis of academic literature and central bank reports, a comparative analysis of both systems, and scenario analysis as the primary methodological tool of the practical part. Four scenarios defined by combinations of CBDC and Bitcoin attractiveness are evaluated based on their impacts on bank deposit bases, the credit channel, and user privacy. The analysis suggests that deposit outflows into CBDC can be understood as an institutionally influenceable threat, whereas outflows into Bitcoin are predominantly exogenous in character, dependent on market dynamics. From an analytical perspective, the potentially most problematic scenario is the simultaneous occurrence of both threats, in which mitigation tools for each outflow channel are different and exhibit limited mutual transferability. The scenario analysis further suggests that the design of CBDC anonymity parameters may co-shape the intensity of the Bitcoin outflow channel. Privacy is therefore not merely a human rights issue but also a variable affecting financial stability.