Odhad hodnoty společnosti Arriva vlaky, s.r.o. pro účely případné akvizice

The aim of this master’s thesis is to perform a complex due diligence and determine the indicative purchase price range for a 100% business interest in Arriva vlaky, s.r.o. from the perspective of a potential buyer. As part of the methodological procedure, a strategic analysis was first prepared, reflecting the risks of the rail transport market liberalization. The subsequent financial analysis included the normalization of historical financial statements and an assessment of the company’s performance. For the valuation itself, the income-based DCF equity method was utilized. In the conclusion of the thesis, the total enterprise value is estimated to be between CZK 3.2 and 4.0 billion. After deducting net interest-bearing debt, the final equity value is estimated in the range of CZK 2.4 to 3.2 billion, noting that its exact value strongly depends on the company’s success in ongoing regional tenders and the chosen discount rate. Although the theoretical calculation indicates a value of 7%, the transaction reality and the risk profile of private equity investors often require a discount rate of around 15%, which would lead to a shift in the overall valuation below the lower limit of the specified interval.