Vliv vybraných makroekonomických šoků na vývoj spotřeby domácností v zemích eurozóny v období 2015-2025

This bachelor thesis focuses on the analysis of the impact of selected macroeconomic shocks on the development of household consumption in euro area countries over the period 2015–2025. The aim of the thesis is to identify the main determinants of household consumption behavior and to evaluate the mechanisms through which macroeconomic and energy shocks are transmitted into the real economy. The empirical part is based on panel regression analysis, which allows capturing both time dynamics and differences among individual euro area countries. The model includes variables representing income factors, labor market conditions, monetary policy, and energy shocks. The results show that the most important determinants of household consumption are disposable income and interest rates. The importance of disposable income confirms the standard theory of the consumption function, according to which consumption is primarily determined by current household income. The effect of interest rates reflects the intertemporal decision-making of households, where higher rates lead to the postponement of consumption in favor of savings. This result is particularly relevant in the context of the period analyzed, which was significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent energy crisis. The pandemic led to a decline in economic activity and increased household uncertainty, while the energy crisis was reflected in the rise in energy prices and inflationary pressures. The impacts of energy shocks appear to be more complex, with aggregate indicators not always statistically significant, which may reflect the diversity of impacts across countries. On the contrary, specific components of energy prices, especially electricity, have a significant and negative impact on household consumption, suggesting that households respond primarily to direct changes in their expenditures caused by the energy crisis. The analysis further reveals significant heterogeneity across euro area countries, with households’ responses to energy price increases depending, among other things, on the degree of energy dependence. Attention is paid to interaction effects, which show that the impacts of electricity prices on consumption are not homogeneous but are influenced by the institutional and economic environments of a given country.