Analýza faktorů ovlivňujících migraci v autonomní oblasti Madeira v letech 2011–2023

This bachelor's thesis analyzes the macroeconomic and socio-economic determinants of migration in the Autonomous Region of Madeira between 2011 and 2023. It specifically focuses on the outflow of the young working-age generation, referred to as brain drain. The research utilizes an unbalanced data panel at the level of eleven Madeira municipalities. The main added value lies in the systematic distinction between cross-sectional associations and causal effects at the municipal level of a previously underexplored Southern-European region. Drawing on the theoretical framework, a hypothesis was formulated postulating a positive correlation between housing prices and tourism on one side and the outflow of the young cohort on the other. The empirical analysis leads to a differentiated conclusion, and the hypothesis is only partially confirmed. The results show that the seemingly strong positive correlation between high housing prices and a lower population outflow is primarily a reflection of the overall attractiveness of wealthier municipalities, rather than an independent causal effect of prices themselves. Thus, in the data for Madeira during 2011–2023, rising housing prices do not exhibit an independent causal push effect on migration. Conversely, the structural orientation of municipalities towards tourism exhibits a negative effect on the migration of the young cohort across alternative specifications (Pooled OLS, One-way FE, FD), indicating its role as a push factor. The thesis thus provides empirical support for the dual labor market theory, according to which the secondary segment of the labor market, represented by tourism services, fails to generate sufficient attractive career opportunities for the young population, leading to their displacement from the region.