Ekonomická komplexita a exportní struktura Kazachstánu (2000–2023): Empirická analýza

Abstract: This bachelor's thesis examines the evolution of economic complexity and export structure in Kazakhstan over the period 2000–2023 and analyses how these changes are associated with selected indicators of economic development. The study applies the Economic Complexity Index framework to a single-country annual time series, using descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis, and ordinary least squares regression. The theoretical framework draws on economic complexity theory, the Product Space framework, the resource curse and Dutch Disease literature, and export-led growth theory. Five variables are used: the Economic Complexity Index, GDP per capita, GDP growth, fuel export share, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of export concentration, sourced from the Harvard Growth Lab, World Bank, and UNCTAD. The findings show that Kazakhstan's ECI remained persistently below the global average throughout most of the observation period, worsening during the commodity boom of 2004–2013 and reaching a minimum of −0.570 in 2010, while export concentration remained extremely high with an average HHI of 0.573. The regression analysis reveals that the raw ECI-income association is negative, reflecting Dutch Disease decoupling, but becomes positive once fuel export dominance is controlled for, consistent with complexity theory. ECI shows a positive and marginally significant association with GDP growth in the simple regression model. A sharp ECI improvement in 2022–2023, reaching 0.436, is the most unexpected finding and requires cautious interpretation given the concurrent disruption of global energy markets. The thesis concludes that Kazakhstan's development over the observation period was predominantly driven by commodity revenues rather than productive complexity, and that income and complexity were structurally decoupled for most of the period examined.