Analýza společnosti ASML a jejího monopolního postavení na trhu s polovodiči

This bachelor's thesis deals with the analysis of ASML, a company that supplies the lithography systems required to manufacture modern chips. The objective of this thesis was to identify the most significant risks threatening ASML and to determine the risk with the greatest impact on stakeholders. Using qualitative PESTLE and SWOT analyses, as well as Porter's Five Forces model, three scenarios representing the major sources of risk for ASML were identified. These scenarios were subsequently quantified using financial planning. The most critical risks appear to be the loss of the monopoly position in EUV lithography, the tightening of export regulations to China, and the bursting of a potential AI bubble. Based on the projected development of revenues, margins, FCFF, and other metrics, the loss of the monopoly position emerges as the scenario with the greatest negative impact on stakeholders. The bursting of the AI bubble would also have a strong negative effect, however, unlike the loss of the monopoly position, it would not be long-term in nature. Export regulations would result in only a one-time drop in revenues and profit.