Fertility Convergence Between Foreign and Native Mothers in Czechia: A Comparative European Perspective

Abstract This thesis examines whether the fertility of foreign mothers in Czechia converges toward that of native mothers, and whether the Czech case follows the convergence pattern documented in the long-established immigrant societies of Western Europe. The question matters because the future size and composition of low-fertility European populations depend materially on immigrant childbearing, yet the convergence regularities established in the West have rarely been tested in the recent immigration countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The study builds an original annual panel for the four largest non-EU origin groups in Czechia — Ukraine, Russia, Viet Nam and Mongolia — observed both as resident in Czechia and as national populations at home, alongside the Czech benchmark, over the years 2013 to 2024. Fertility for the foreign groups is estimated from official birth and population data, and the total fertility rate, age-specific rates and the origin–destination comparison are analyzed with three formal convergence tests: beta convergence, sigma convergence, and a fixed-effects trend model applied to the gap in the total fertility rate. The results show partial and heterogeneous convergence rather than a steady closing of the gap. Short-run beta convergence is present but is carried disproportionately by the most volatile group; the dispersion of the groups around the Czech rate does not narrow; and once group-specific levels are held constant the typical gap widens over time, a conditional divergence concentrated in the turbulent years after 2021. Beneath these aggregate results lies a sharp division by region of origin: the Asian-origin groups hold above the Czech rate through socialization, while the European-origin groups fall below it through selection, with the Ukrainian collapse after 2022 adding the mark of disruption. Adaptation toward the Czech norm, the mechanism the convergence literature places at its center, is not observed within this first generation. Czechia thus appears to stand not outside the European convergence story but at its first-generation beginning, confirming the literature's central lesson that the country of origin matters decisively.