Vliv aplikace obranné únikové klauzule na udržitelnost veřejných financí

This thesis examines the impact of applying the defence escape clause on the sustainability of public finances in European Union member states. The theoretical part of the work addresses fiscal rules, defence spending, and their impact on public finances in the past. It describes the construction of the defence escape clause within the reformed European fiscal framework. The practical part uses data on defence spending according to the COFOG classification and approved medium-term fiscal and structural plans of individual member states. Based on these data, three model scenarios of defence spending using the defence clause in the years 2025 to 2028 are created. The impacts of this clause on budget balances and debt trajectories for all 27 member states of the European Union are then analysed. The obtained results show that the impacts of using the defence escape clause differ significantly between countries, due to different levels of defence spending, the overall state of public finances and macroeconomic assumptions. The impacts of the application of the defence escape clause, therefore, have very different impacts on the long-term sustainability of public finances in individual Member States.