Vliv inflace na spotřebu domácností v ČR v letech 2015-2024

The purpose of this bachelor’s thesis is to analyze and quantify the impact of inflation on real household consumption in the Czech Republic for the period 2010-2024. Private consumption is divided into two components: consumption of durable goods and consumption of non-durable goods. The study offers a detailed look at the differing sensitivities of these individual consumption components to price shocks within the Czech economy. Using a vector error correction model (VECM), this study demonstrates the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship in which a 1% increase in the price level leads to a 3,92% decrease in the consumption of durable goods, while for non-durable goods, this decline is only 0,55%. Consumption of durable goods thus exhibits more than seven times higher price elasticity. In the short-run, current consumption reacts with a lag of two to three quarters, while the direct impact of inflation on durable goods is not evident in the short run. Special attention is given to the crisis period from 2021 to 2024. The estimated vector autoregression model VAR(1) for this period confirms that a 1 % increase in inflation in the previous quarter leads to a 0,54% decline in consumption of durable goods. In the case of non-durable goods, the impact of inflation and other variables is statistically insignificant.