Vliv makroekonomických a měnových podmínek na ceny rezidenčních nemovitostí v Praze v období 2008–2025

This bachelor thesis examines the impact of monetary and macroeconomic conditions on residential property prices in Prague, analysed separately for the segments of new and existing apartments. The aim is to verify whether monetary and macroeconomic conditions have a statistically significant effect on the growth rate of apartment prices, and to assess whether the sensitivity of the two segments differs. The analysis is based on quarterly data covering the period from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2025, that is 69 observations, of which 67 enter the estimation once lags are accounted for. All data come from the open databases of the Czech Statistical Office, the Czech National Bank (ARAD) and the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. The explanatory variables include wages, the share of unemployed persons, gross domestic product, inflation, the mortgage interest rate, the volume of housing loans, housing construction and construction work prices, supplemented by dummy variables capturing the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis. The relationship is modelled using an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model estimated by ordinary least squares, the quality of which was verified by a set of diagnostic tests. The results confirm a statistically significant effect of the interest rate in both segments, pronounced price inertia among existing apartments and a stronger link between new apartments and cost and credit factors, while income variables showed no short-run effect.