Ověření platnosti Okunova zákona v České republice v letech 2000-2024

This thesis examines the validity and temporal stability of Okun’s Law in the Czech economy over the period 2000–2024 by applying both static and dynamic regression models based on difference and gap specifications. The theoretical section summarizes essential macroeconomic concepts related to unemployment, potential output, business cycles, and the original formulation of Okun’s law. Using quarterly data from the Czech Statistical Office, Czech National Bank, Eurostat, and the OECD, the empirical section employs OLS, ARDL models, and rolling regressions to assess the short-run and long-run relationship between real GDP and unemployment. The results show a strong and statistically significant negative relationship between real output and unemployment. Dynamic specifications demonstrate substantially higher explanatory power by capturing unemployment persistence. The stability of Okun’s Law varies over time subsample estimates and rolling coefficients reveal its partial weakening after 2009 and pronounced instability during the pandemic period. The main contribution of the thesis is the comprehensive comparison of multiple Okun’s Law specifications, their econometric diagnostics, and the assessment of their time stability using methods rarely applied in Czech research.