Analýza procesu zavádění jednotné dávky státní sociální pomoci v České republice a její predikované dopady (2015-2025)

This bachelor thesis analyzes the process of introducing a unified state social assistance benefit in the Czech Republic, which will replace the current fragmented system of four non-insurance benefits (housing allowance, child allowance, living allowance, and housing supplement) from October 2025. The thesis analyzes the historical development of these four benefits for the years 2015–2023 in the context of historical events and the economic situation at the time. The paper provides a retrospective analysis that models the hypothetical impacts of introducing this unified state social assistance benefit in the past on the time series of total expenditure on the replaced benefits for the years 2015–2023 and demonstrates several scenarios of possible developments. Furthermore, an extrapolation of the time series of current expenditures is used to create a prediction showing how expenditures could develop under the current system settings and how these expenditures could be affected by the introduction of the state social assistance benefit in various scenarios. The results show that while the low take-up reform option can generate significant fiscal savings for the state, the high take- up option (not only due to the work bonus) has the potential to significantly increase state expenditure on non-insurance benefits. The paper also identifies the key elements of the new system, in particular the elimination of income thresholds and means testing and assesses their impact on the incentive to work legally. Based on the findings and historical developments, the paper formulates its own recommendations.