Analýza vládních záměrů fiskální konsolidace a jejich reálných dopadů na velikost státního aparátu v České republice v letech 2021–2024

This bachelor's thesis analyzes the government's fiscal consolidation intentions in the Czech Republic during the years 2021–2024 and confronts them with the actual development of the state apparatus's size. The aim of the thesis is to analyze the development of state employees (categorized into Organizational Units of the State – OSS, and State-Contributed Organizations – PŘO), specifically their FTE and salaries. Furthermore, the thesis verifies whether the declared promises were fulfilled, particularly the reduction of civil servants by 13%, the 2% reduction in the volume of salaries in the state administration and the 5% reduction in operational expenses (all excluding the MoD). The theoretical part is based on the empirical concept of expenditure cuts and Public Choice theory, specifically Niskanen's model of bureaucracy. It further defines the characteristics of „state employees“ and their categorization. Methodologically, the author divides state employees into a „consolidatable segment“ (CS) and a „protected sector“ (PS) to allow for a more precise analysis of the development. Data analysis from the State Final Accounts revealed that the total number of employees increased in both FTEs (+3.34%) and salary volume (+13.4%), largely due to the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MŠMT). The CS decreased in FTEs (-4.31%), but the volume of salaries increased (+9.54%). None of the government's goals were met. The declared 13% reduction in civil servants was achieved by only approximately one-third (-4.56%); the promised year-on-year 2% reduction in salary volume actually resulted in an increase (+1.12%); and the 5% reduction in operational expenses did not lead to a decrease, but rather a slight increase (+0.11%). However, in the same year, after adjusting for the MoD and MŠMT, the Government cut CZK 38 billion in capital expenditures year-on-year and simultaneously cut CZK 6 billion in SFDI investments from the state budget. In reality, consolidation took place exclusively through inflation. The results indicate a phenomenon of inflationary consolidation, the influence of very strong interest groups, and suggest strong bureaucratic resistance.