Vliv stability a volatility systému měnového kurzu na ekonomiky vybraných severských zemí v období 1999-2024

This thesis analyzes the relationship between exchange rates, exchange rate regimes, and selected macroeconomic variables—specifically GDP, HICP, the current account balance, and the price of Brent crude oil. Economists' perspectives on exchange rate regimes vary significantly, and there is no broad consensus on which system ensures the greatest economic prosperity. Furthermore, there is no unified opinion on which exchange rate regime is most suitable for stable economic growth. While some economists believe that the choice of regime has no impact on long-term growth, others consider it one of the fundamental issues within a central bank's monetary policy. The study examines this issue using the example of four Nordic countries that utilize their own national currencies or a common currency under either fixed or floating exchange rate regimes between 1999 and 2024. The primary contribution of this work lies in the results of an empirical analysis of the relationships between exchange rate regimes and selected macroeconomic indicators. The findings suggest that the choice of exchange rate regime has significant impacts on a country's economic development, particularly its competitiveness in international markets. It is evident that countries with floating exchange rate regimes are more competitive than those preferring fixed exchange rate systems. At the same time, however, currencies within fixed exchange rate regimes are significantly more stable. Another finding is the existence of a weak negative linear correlation between the development of the NOK/EUR and NOK/USD exchange pairs and the price of Brent crude oil.