Obchodní efekty formálního a neformálního zavedení eura v zemích střední a východní Evropy

The aim of the master's thesis is to examine the effect of formal euro adoption for former Eastern Bloc countries and the extent to which the use of the euro in trade relations affects bilateral trade flows in non-eurozone countries, utilizing a structural gravity model and the PPML estimator. The research is divided into two phases. In the first phase, the thesis estimates the so-called Rose effect regarding the entry of Central and Eastern European countries into the Eurozone. The results of this phase suggest that the effect of entering the Eurozone is 18.64% higher for CEE countries compared to the general trend of other member states, although the overall statistical significance of the absolute increase in trade remains ambiguous due to data variability. The second phase investigates the impact of informal euroization through the invoicing currency statistics of individual countries. The analysis of informal euroization demonstrates that a high rate of euro invoicing acts as a significant stimulus for trade. Upon exceeding the identified critical threshold of a 60% share of euro invoicing, bilateral trade increases by 8% to 12%.