Dopad přijetí eura na zahraniční obchod Portugalska

This master’s thesis examines the impact of euro adoption on Portugal’s trade in goods. The euro area has long represented a major field of research concerning the economic effects of monetary integration. The aim of the thesis is to contribute to the literature on the economic consequences of adopting a common currency through the application of the synthetic control method (SCM) to the case of Portugal. The SCM approach consists of constructing a synthetic Portugal that did not adopt the euro and comparing its foreign trade performance with observed outcomes. The analysis estimates the impact of euro adoption on exports and imports with euro area countries as well as on total foreign trade. The results indicate that euro adoption did not have a statistically significant effect on Portuguese exports to or imports from euro area countries. For total exports, a negative but statistically insignificant effect was identified. For total imports, a negative effect was found that was statistically significant over the entire post-intervention period; however, this significance disappeared when the analysis was limited to the period up to 2008. The robustness of the results was verified through changes in donor pool weighting and an in-time placebo test. The findings are consistent with the existing literature, which likewise reports negative or statistically insignificant effects of euro adoption on Portugal’s foreign trade.