Obchodní dopady brexitu: Posouzení role členství v Evropské unii v obchodu mezi Spojeným královstvím a střední Evropou

This thesis evaluates the structural consequences of the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union on bilateral trade with Central European economies. By framing the 2021 Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) as a definitive economic shock, the study quantifies the impact of reintroduced non-tariff barriers on previously integrated markets. The research utilizes a structural Gravity Model estimated via PPML to isolate the “Brexit effect” from extraneous disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic. Empirical evidence indicates a statistically significant 9.74% decline in trade volumes relative to the counterfactual baseline. Ultimately, the findings suggest that regulatory divergence functions as a “distance-equivalent” tax, creating a persistent gap in trade levels. This study concludes that zero-tariff frameworks do not replicate the depth of integration provided by the Single Market.