Simulace loterijní hry

This master’s thesis focuses on simulation modelling of lottery games from the operator’s perspective. The aim of the thesis is to develop two transparent and parameterized models in Microsoft Excel: a draw-based lottery model inspired by the Czech lottery Sportka and a scratch card model inspired by the Zlatá podkova 354 issue. The thesis connects the theoretical foundations of Monte Carlo simulation, the regulatory framework of gambling in the Czech Republic, and the practical implementation of economic models. The theoretical part first defines the social and public-health context of gambling, the legislative framework of lotteries and instant lotteries, the relevant probability distributions, and the methodology of the simulation study. The practical part then presents two separate Excel models. The draw-based lottery model simulates a one-year horizon with 500 replications, two draws per betting period, rollover mechanisms, Bonus, Prize Fund, and an aggregated Šance module. The scratch card model combines a deterministic calculation of the full issue with a micro-simulation of a scaled database of 100,000 tickets and 100 simulation runs. The results show that the draw-based lottery has a relatively stable cash GGR under high betting volume, but substantially higher economic volatility after accounting for rollover and fund-related liabilities. In contrast, the scratch card model exhibits very low GGR volatility, as its prize structure is predefined before the issue is sold. The main risk of the scratch card is therefore not random payout volatility, but insufficient sell-through, cost structure, and the level of unclaimed prizes. The main contribution of the thesis is an auditable simulation framework that enables comparison of the economics and risk profiles of two structurally different lottery mechanisms.