Predikce vývoje trhu s průmyslovými nemovitostmi pomocí indexu tržní hodnoty

The purpose of the dissertation is to predict the future development of the industrial real estate market using market value index. The study brings innovative approach to development of industrial space market value index suitable for markets with insufficient market data. Original feature of the study is set of three other indices which monitor negotiation positions of users and developers on the industrial property market and internal rate of return of invested equity. Linear regression model is used to analyse the relationship between the industrial real estate market indices and independent macroeconomic variables including industrial sentiment index as a measure of expected economic performance. The ex-post analysis was conducted within real estate market cycle from 2008 until 2018. Expected values of the indices were compared with their actual values in ex-ante analysis during the first two quarters of 2019. The market model was tested by ex-ante analysis of actual gross take up and new supply during the first two quarters of 2019. Forecast of the Czech industrial space market evolution is concluded based on regression model for the period from the third quarter 2019 until the first quarter 2020. Sensitivity analysis allowed prediction of the industrial real estate market status up to the fourth quarter 2020.