Hospodářsko-politické konsekvence případného zavedení eura v ČR

This dissertation examines aspects of the possible adoption of the common european currency, the Euro, in the Czech Republic in terms of economic conditions related to the Czech Republic's readiness for joining the Economic and Monetary Union, but also in terms of the functioning of the Euro area and potential future changes in its architecture. Within the economic indicators, in this dissertation it has been analyzed the degree of flexibility of the labor market and workforce mobility in both the Czech Republic and the Euro area, concluding that in both cases the labor market is not flexible enough and mobile enough in order to meet one of the basic conditions of the theory of optimum currency area. The fulfillment of this is crucial in terms of a possible positive balance of benefits and costs of joining the monetary union. After confirming the assumption that the Economic and Monetary Union is not an optimum currency area, an analysis of the stability and sustainability of public finances in the Euro area and the Czech Republic follows, concluding that data in the long run, fiscal policy cannot fulfill the role of an adjustment mechanism in the event of the existence of asymmetric economic shocks or different developments of the business cycle in the Czech Republic and the Euro area. The analysis also shows that the exchange rate of the Czech crown, in the case of the Czech Republic as a country in the stage of convegence process towards more economic developed Euro area member states, is developing in an expected, not extremely volatile, way. In addition to the above, the free-floating exchange rate leads to long-term growth in the volume of Czech exports, and thus does not harm the Czech export-oriented economy. Examining the development of Euro area economies refutes the previously shared hypothesis, that the emergence of a single European currency will lead to faster growth rates of European economies and faster process of convergence of economically heterogeneous European countries. Based on the available data, this dissertation confirms the process of divergence of selected EU countries, when economic differences deepen, especially between the northern and southern parts of the euro area. Furthermore, this thesis states, that the ongoing, but still insufficient, real and especially nominal convergence of the Czech Republic to the euro area is an obstacle to the adoption of the euro. Based on the analysis and evaluation of EU documents of legislative and non-legislative nature, the political consequences of monetary integration are also presented. The probable future change in the architecture of the euro area is not economically advantageous for the Czech Republic, especially with regard to further centralization of decision-making in the euro area and greater cost-risk sharing through Eurobonds or a banking union. This thesis concludes unequivocally, that it is currently not advantageous for the Czech Republic to replace the Czech crown with the euro and enter Euro area. The conclusion of the dissertation is also an economic policy recommendation.