Mezera krytí a varovné signály podnikové krize – včasná identifikace preventivní restrukturalizace

The key factor in early identification of a company crisis is a set of criteria used to assess the situation of the company concerned and, if applicable, the symptoms of its crisis. The objective of this dissertation is to identify the potential of the liquidity gap and other financial characteristics in early identification of company crises while developing an early warning system designed to timely identify potential company crises. The key method used in this dissertation lies in a quantitative analysis of selected moratorium-protected companies and companies whose crisis led to bankruptcy plus a comparison of selected financial characteristics in such bankrupt companies and a pool of problem-free companies, the objective being to identify the discriminative potential of such financial characteristics. The said quantitative analysis shows that both the companies that resorted to moratorium protection and the companies that went bankrupt had faced big problems already three years earlier. Another important observation is that the bankrupt companies had problems with major liquidity gaps already three years before going bankrupt and that the liquidity gap may be an independent warning signal of a company crisis. Using logistics regression, the comparison of the bankruptcy and problem-free companies and the identification of the discriminative potential of the selected financial characteristics were then used as the basis for developing an early warning system. The hypothesis that companies tend to identify the risk of a company crisis late (if at all) and that if such company crises were identified early and suitable remedial measures were taken in response (including, for example, preventive restructuring), many of such companies might be able to restore their financial stability and prosperity and, as one of the side-effects, might be able to eliminate the related costs incurred by the national economy, has been confirmed.