Rizika a perspektivy automobilového průmyslu ČR v podmínkách globálních změn v období 2018–2021

This bachelor thesis focuses on the risks and rewards of the automotive industry in the Czech Republic considering global events in between the years 2018 and 2021. The main topic of the thesis is clarifying the influence of the ongoing economic shock on the Czech automotive industry, determining its risks and rewards, comparing efficiency of the Czech automotive industry in between observed years and to execute a comparison with European automotive. The first chapter defines economic shocks theory and its influence on the output gap and cyclical development of economy. It continues with the explanation of the Risk/Reward Index methodology from the rating agency Fitch Solutions Group Limited and the description of Czech automotive with its connection to global value chain. The second chapter describes events and characteristics that led to disruptions in GVC which negatively influenced the Czech automotive industry as research from scholarly and serious journals. The third chapter focuses on the comparison of time series data from production, export, domestic sales, and registrations of new vehicles with data from business consumer surveys. The correlation method allows us to define if there exists a connection between the expectation of producers and real production data. The last part of the chapter is the performance comparison of Czech, Slovak, German and European automotive.