Využití simulace Monte Carlo při analýze rizika projektu výstavby bytů v Kravařích

The aim of the thesis is to assess project risks and evaluate its feasibility by using Monte Carlo analysis. In this thesis, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed for the net present value of a housing investment project of construction of flats in Kravaře. The simulation considers the horizon of twelve years, where the first year is an initial investment, the following ten years is the income generated from a rental and the last year is the value of the real estate. In order to perform the simulation, it was necessary to obtain the input data for the simulation by using a questionnaire survey from selected experts within the construction and real estate market in the Moravian-Silesian region. The input values from the questionnaire survey were combined with values obtained from the literature research. The result of the simulation of the net present value with regard to risks indicates feasibility of the given project. The reason is that all simulations of NPV yielded positive values within the twelve years from the project’s launch. However, these results must be interpreted in the context of identified risks, where one of the main risks is the difficulty of predicting the level of material prices in these turbulent times.