Analýza výpočtu důchodu v České republice – porovnání a predikce budoucího vývoje na základě aktuálního vládního návrhu projednávaného v roce 2023

This bachelor thesis analyses the trend of gradual increase of pensions in the period from 2022 to 2023. The thesis examines the increase of pensions before and after the change of calculation parameters. The model situations focus on the calculation in relation to the minimum, average and maximum pension payments. The model is based on the year 2022 due to two extraordinary indexations followed by the regular January indexation in 2023. The final amounts of the January 2023 indexation are used to compare and calculate the increase in pensions before and after the change in the calculation parameters for the June 2023 indexation. The main objective of the thesis: to confirm or disprove the hypothesis that the change in the calculation of the indexation will have a negative effect on the pensions of citizens of post-working age. This hypothesis was disproved. The results show that, despite the reduction in the June indexation, pensions will still increase and citizens will have a higher income than before. However, people with average and higher pensions will see a decrease in their expected payout, while low-income citizens will see a slight improvement compared to the original version before the amendment. The reduction in the June indexation will lead to a reduction in state budget expenditure, which will result in savings in pension payments. These austerity measures may have a positive long-term impact on the overall state budget and contribute to reducing the public deficit and the sustainability of the social system.