Inflační očekávání analytiků finančních trhů - zpětný pohled

This qualification thesis aims to answer the question whether inflation expectations in the Czech economy are rather rational (forward-looking) or adaptive (backward-looking). It is based on the inflation expectations of financial market analysts and entre-preneurs in the period from the beginning of 2010 to the middle of 2023. The first hypo-thesis was that the expectations of both types of entities are adaptive, the second hypo-thesis was that the expectations of analysts are more accurate than the expectations of entrepreneurs. The first hypothesis was confirmed for both analysts and entrepreneurs – the connection between forecasts and the current level of inflation (the last known data at the time of making the forecast) was stronger than the connection between their forecasts and sub-sequently the actual observed level of inflation. The second hypothesis was only par-tially confirmed – a lower average deviation of the forecast from reality was demonstra-ted at the 20% level of significance for the period 2010 – 2019. The partial conclusion of this qualification work is the relatively strong attachment of analysts and entreprene-urs to the inflation target of the central bank.