Vliv zrušení superhrubé mzdy na výnosy daní z příjmů fyzických osob v ČR

The bachelor thesis examines the impact of the tax reform implemented in 2021, which brought significant changes in the collection of personal income tax. The most important change for this thesis, was the narrowing of the tax base, the so-called abolition of “supergross“ tax base. An analysis of the impact of this change on the public budget was estimated using the ARIMA econometric model. First, the values in 2020, 2021 and 2022 that could be collected if there was no change in tax legislation were predicted, and then the actual values of collections of personal income tax were subtracted from these values. The final impact was CZK 93.98 billion. A sub-objective was to estimate the impact of the abolition of the “supergross“ tax base on the collection of personal income tax from employment. The impact here was CZK 97.83 billion. It was also examined whether there were significant changes in the time series of the collection of personal income tax and the collection of personal income tax from employment in 2020 and 2021. For this research, a Chow test of structural breaks was used, which confirmed a significant change in the collection of personal income tax from employment in both years and in the collection of personal income tax only in 2020.