Analýza rizika strategického podnikatelského plánu společnosti Emco spol. s.r.o

The aim of this master's thesis is to conduct an analysis of the risks of the company Emco spol. s.r.o. arising from its strategic position and to develop a strategic financial plan for the planned period of 2023-2024 based on the financial analysis of the company, taking into account the defined financial goal for this period – achieving a 15% year-on-year revenue growth. To achieve the goal of this work, a strategic analysis of the macro-environment, micro-environment, and internal environment of the Emco company is conducted, as well as VRIO and financial analysis. The results are summarized using a SWOT analysis. Its output is used in the preparation of the financial plan and the identification of risks threatening the fulfillment of Emco's strategic business plan in relation to the set goals. After identifying the key risks, a pessimistic and optimistic scenario is established considering the financial goal that the risks endanger. Based on these scenarios, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed using the Crystal Ball tool. After simulating revenues corresponding to achievement of the financial goal in 2024, i.e., with a 15% year-on-year growth, it is found that with a 90% probability, the revenue will reach a level between 1 860 567,47 thousand CZK and 2 361 000,01 thousand CZK. The value of 2 110 650 thousand CZK fulfilling the financial goal will occur with a probability of 50,07 %. In the last planned year, 2024, the revenue will reach a level between 2 138 222,23 thousand CZK and 2 715 765,95 thousand CZK with a 90% probability. The value according to the financial goal, i.e., 2 427 248 thousand CZK, will occur with a probability of 50,61 %. The information obtained within the scope of this master's thesis may be beneficial for the owners and top management, and possibly also for risk management of the Emco company, as a basis for strategic decision-making.