Diverzifikace ekonomik závislých na vývozu ropy

This bachelor's thesis addresses the problem of economic diversification in countries whose economies are significantly dependent on oil exports. The theoretical part provides a detailed description of the historical development of oil economies, including specific characteristics such as high dependence on oil revenues, revenue volatility, the Dutch Disease effect, and weak institutional environments. The practical part focuses on analyzing the relationship between oil prices and GDP in selected countries through correlation analysis. It utilizes Spearman's correlation coefficient to examine this relationship in 12 OPEC member states and 3 non-member countries (Norway, Russia, USA) from 1990 to 2023. The results indicate that a strong positive correlation persists in most OPEC member states, while this relationship is weaker in countries with lower oil production or unstable institutions. Successful diversification requires effective revenue management, quality institutions, political stability, and strategic investments in non-oil sectors and human capital. Recommendations vary based on the degree of dependence and stability, ranging from investments and stabilization funds to ensuring basic security.