Makroekonomická analýza hospodářského vývoje Ruské federace v letech 2021–2025 podle klíčových ukazatelů

The thesis "Macroeconomic Analysis of the Economic Development of the Russian Federation in 2021–2025 According to Key Indicators" focuses on analyzing the output gap using univariate filters and assessing external balance through the balance of payments, sectoral balances, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble, and the international reserves of the Central Bank of Russia. It also examines monetary policy (particularly through the neutral real interest rate and the Taylor rule) and fiscal policy (cyclically adjusted balance). The study includes both traditional and modern currency crisis indicators. The results show that the output gap, according to median and average values, was mostly positive during 2021 and 2023–2025, indicating a positive production gap. Economic policy was found to be uncoordinated in 9 of the 18 analyzed quarters (50% of cases). Warning signals were identified in at least one traditional and one modern currency crisis indicator (especially the short-term debt to total debt ratio and the M2 to foreign reserves ratio). Additional indicators, such as the M1 overhang and the deviation of the real effective exchange rate, also suggested elevated currency risk. The chapters discussing economic policy are complemented by commentary from the perspective of Modern Monetary Theory.