The impact of speculators on the commodity markets

In the recent years, there has been growing talk of investing in commodities in the financial markets. In the past, the commodity markets served for purposes of the producers and the end-users of commodities. With gradual innovation of the financial markets in the 19th and 20th century the modern commodity markets evolved and became more standardized. This process was accompanied by the increasing interest of financial speculators. In contrast with the commercial participants, the goal of these new investors in the commodity markets is not to hedge against adverse changes in commodity prices but to profit on the price movements of commodities. The inflow of this group was intensified by the development of new financial instruments enabling these investors to enter the commodity markets. It is undisputable that speculators have positive effect on the markets, by providing liquidity and lowering transaction costs. What remains to be answered is the real effect which the speculators have on the commodity prices, and if their action does not create distortion in the commodity prices. The price development on the commodity markets during the recent financial crisis gives strong arguments in the hands of those accusing the speculators of the negative impact on the commodity prices, which sometimes lead to creation of price bubbles. The goal of this thesis will be the analysis of the effect of speculators on the commodity markets, and if this prejudice is justified.