External Balance of Southern European Countries within the Context of the Global Economic Crisis

This diploma thesis focuses on changes in the external balance of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain in the period of financial and economic crisis after 2008. The theoretical framework is based on an exact definition of external balance, ultimately as neither surplus nor deficit of a relevant balance in terms of balance of payments. Potential impacts of monetary and fiscal policies on the external balance are described there as well, using the IS-LM-BP model. The second part of the thesis, which employs this theory, is mainly based on an analysis of relevant balances of payments of the aforementioned countries, focusing on their external balance in the period before as well as during the economic crisis. The aim of the analysis is to identify the main causes of external imbalance in the Southern European countries and to find out whether these played a key role as a trigger and accelerator in their recession after 2008. Specific changes during the crisis identified in balances of payments will also be depicted in the IS-LM-BP model. Leading to the conclusion, the outcomes of a correlation analysis are used as well, looking into causal relationships between specific balance of payments variables on the one hand, and macroeconomic variables on the other. A minor part also deals with the role played in this context by the TARGET2 payment system and answers the question to which extent this system took part in the elimination of the external imbalance of the Southern European countries during the crisis.