Leading, coincident and lagging indicators in the U.S. business cycles
Thesis title: | Leading, coincident and lagging indicators in the U.S. business cycles |
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Author: | Bon, Andrew |
Thesis type: | Bachelor thesis |
Supervisor: | Janíčko, Martin |
Opponents: | Prokop, Jaromír |
Thesis language: | English |
Abstract: | This thesis focuses mainly on analysing leading indicators of business cycles within the USA since the 1960s until the present, while providing theoretical background to the coincident and lagging indicators. United States is a country with incredibly rich amounts of data, which enable a thorough analysis of individual variables. First part is dedicated to different theories that explain the behaviour of cyclical fluctuations, such as a monetarist, Keynesian, or real business cycle approaches are included, followed by defining individual cyclical indicators with the provision of examples. Second part consists of actual analysis starting with dating post-war cycles and real GDP development. Three leading indicators are then analysed and evaluated, specifically the amounts of building permits issued, spread between a 10-year Treasury constant maturity bill and Federal funds rate and finally the unemployment insurance claims. Evaluation is based on individual success rates obtained from historical data. The third and final chapter attempts to forecast the economic outlook of the current business cycle using obtained data from the previous chapter. Conclusion provides an overall summary of individual parts along with pointing out the main findings. |
Keywords: | Economic fluctuations; Business cycle; Leading Indicators; Forecast recessions |
Thesis title: | Leading, coincident and lagging indicators in the U.S. business cycles |
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Author: | Bon, Andrew |
Thesis type: | Bakalářská práce |
Supervisor: | Janíčko, Martin |
Opponents: | Prokop, Jaromír |
Thesis language: | English |
Abstract: | This thesis focuses mainly on analysing leading indicators of business cycles within the USA since the 1960s until the present, while providing theoretical background to the coincident and lagging indicators. United States is a country with incredibly rich amounts of data, which enable a thorough analysis of individual variables. First part is dedicated to different theories that explain the behaviour of cyclical fluctuations, such as a monetarist, Keynesian, or real business cycle approaches are included, followed by defining individual cyclical indicators with the provision of examples. Second part consists of actual analysis starting with dating post-war cycles and real GDP development. Three leading indicators are then analysed and evaluated, specifically the amounts of building permits issued, spread between a 10-year Treasury constant maturity bill and Federal funds rate and finally the unemployment insurance claims. Evaluation is based on individual success rates obtained from historical data. The third and final chapter attempts to forecast the economic outlook of the current business cycle using obtained data from the previous chapter. Conclusion provides an overall summary of individual parts along with pointing out the main findings. |
Keywords: | Forecast recessions; Leading indicators; Bussiness cycle; Economic fluctuations |
Information about study
Study programme: | Ekonomie a hospodářská správa/Economics |
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Type of study programme: | Bakalářský studijní program |
Assigned degree: | Bc. |
Institutions assigning academic degree: | Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze |
Faculty: | Faculty of Economics |
Department: | Department of Economics |
Information on submission and defense
Date of assignment: | 6. 3. 2015 |
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Date of submission: | 15. 5. 2015 |
Date of defense: | 15. 6. 2015 |
Identifier in the InSIS system: | https://insis.vse.cz/zp/51943/podrobnosti |