The strategic importance of Serbia to the European Union

Doctoral dissertation presents an analysis of the Serbian economy in the mutual relations between the European Union (EU) and the Western Balkans. The assumption that the EU and Serbia, as an integral part of the Balkan region, have interests in the partnership and cooperation is the baseline of the research. The following aspects have been singled out, by method of ranking, which is based on achieving the highest turnover in the last six years: trade, foreign direct investment and energy. Gravity model was used to analyze routes of trade and energy. A models of trade import and export between Serbia and the EU 28 member countries and the countries of the Western Balkans, as well as models of imports and exports of energy between Serbia and the EU 28 member countries and the countries of the Western Balkans, were used in order to assess the potential of trade and energy trade. Method of trend line and trend extrapolation of foreign direct investment (FDI) was used in order to determine the degree of the presence of FDI in Serbia and their predictions, which could be an indicator of investment climate in Serbia. The conclusion is that Serbia has strategic importance as a candidate for membership in the EU because of its regional importance. Entering the Western Balkan countries in the EU should not happen without Serbia, because Serbia has a regional importance, which arise from the economic, historical, cultural, infrastructural and geopolitical links with countries in the region, of which some are already members of the EU.