Brexit and its potential economic consequences

Since the day the European Union membership referendum took place in the United Kingdom, the most sensible subject to discuss during the English after-noon tea became the “life after Brexit”. A special place in this discussion is taken by the topic of potential economic consequences of the decision to leave the Euro-pean Union. This work aims to provide a critical survey on the empirical results, which were obtained to forecast the economic future of the United Kingdom. This goal was fulfilled gradually, starting from the assessment of four potential scenari-os, which British policy makers may choose for the regulation of trade with its ex-ternal partners. The main focus, however, will be given to the WTO scenario due to the controversy and ambiguousness, which it creates among the economists and the general public. The chosen lens to look through while assessing the potential economic consequences is the HM Treasury analysis on the long-term economic impact of EU membership and its alternatives. A brief overview of the major prin-ciples and methods applied in the report will provide the reader with the idea of how the main results to estimate the “Life after Brexit” were obtained. The follow-ing critical analysis of the main statistical tools used in the Treasury report aims to show that, despite the seemingly ominous predictions, the United Kingdom has all the chances to step happily on its independent economic path free from the Euro-pean guidance.