Is the outbreak of coronavirus a Black Swan?

The main topic of this diploma thesis is whether or not the current coronavirus pandemic could be regarded as a Black Swan event. The adverse economic situation together with overloaded health care providers and considerable challenges for the society as a whole raise the question if the pandemic situation could have been anticipated and prepared for in a better way. An analysis of the attributes typical of a Black Swan event (extreme impact, rarity, and prospective unpredictability) is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal is to categorize the current situation. As the results show, pandemic situations are not rare events and the current one was anticipated; nonetheless, the impact of its global outbreak might be considered extreme. Therefore, the following question arises: Are we able to predict precisely enough to prepare for future events? This thesis provides the reader with insight into the concept of Black Swan events, into examination of extreme impact of the outbreak of coronavirus, into examination of its prospective unpredictability, and into examination of rarity of such events. Additionally, the findings of this study might lead to a reconsideration of our reliability on forecasts and of our ability to prepare for the future.