Economic Crises on the Example of Chile: Causes, Development and Forecasting

Economic crises are one of the most discussed economic topics. They are investigated by economists, who describe their types, causes and possible solutions, but also by the general public because they fundamentally influence microeconomic subjects too. This diploma thesis briefly summarizes the current state of knowledge in the field of economic crises with a focus on forecasting. This is usually done by monitoring the development of macroeconomic indicators, which tend to show some typical behaviour in times of crises. In the empirical part, these findings are applied to time series of selected indicators of the Chilean economy. This country provides an interesting insight into this issue in terms of changes in economic policies and prosperity over time. On the sample of crises since the 1970s, this paper reveals whether macroeconomic indicators fulfilled the theoretical stylized facts and which of them would have been possible indicators of the forthcoming crises. This approach is then applied to the ongoing coronavirus crisis. During the analysis, there is an emphasis on the historical and economic context, which allows to put the acquired knowledge in a broader perspective.