Analysis of long-term unemployment in the states of the European Union

This bachelor's thesis deals with the analysis of long-term unemployment in the European Union, which represents the duration of unemployment at a minimum of one year. Between 2009 and 2020, the average annual share of the long-term unemployed people across the European Union never fell below 30% and the long-term unemployment rate never fell below 2%, demonstrating that long-term unemployment was very problematic not only for unemployed individuals but also for their economies. For these reasons, the aim of the thesis was an exhaustive analysis of the long-term unemployment throughout the European Union and 13 selected member states between 2009 and 2020 in general, by gender or educational attainment using basic characteristics of time series. Using appropriate statistical methods, a significant effect of quarterly seasonality was also verified on the indicators of the share of the long-term unemployed people and the long-term unemployment rate, and a trend was also estimated on these data using exponential smoothing or moving averages. The appropriateness of the predictions based on these trends needed to be verified due to the coronavirus pandemic from 2020 and the consequences associated with it. Finally, the relationship between the time series of unemployment rates (general and long-term) and inflation and GDP growth rate was also examined. It turned out that long-term unemployment varied across the European Union, with differences between the sexes and education groups not always similar. The results of the seasonality and trend analysis were often various as well. The coronavirus pandemic during 2020 significantly disrupted the development of the share of the long-term unemployed people, which made no sense to predict. Only the long-term unemployment rate with the GDP growth rate showed a significant correlation.