The bachelor thesis focuses on GDP and inflation forecasting in the Czech Republic. It starts with a theoretical research of forecasting and individual indicators. In the methodology section, the modeling methods used for the analysis of economic time series are presented. The aim of the paper is to provide an estimation with regard to the development of Czech economy. A sub-objective is a critical evaluation of the resulting forecast. In order to achieve the set objectives, the application part... show full abstractThe bachelor thesis focuses on GDP and inflation forecasting in the Czech Republic. It starts with a theoretical research of forecasting and individual indicators. In the methodology section, the modeling methods used for the analysis of economic time series are presented. The aim of the paper is to provide an estimation with regard to the development of Czech economy. A sub-objective is a critical evaluation of the resulting forecast. In order to achieve the set objectives, the application part uses the ARIMA model in forecasting individual indicators in the Statgraphics program. Subsequently, the applicability of the model is verified on the backcast of GDP and the forecasts of future values are compared with relevant sources. The result of the work is an economic forecast for 5 years. |