This paper examines the influence of six selected factors on the accuracy of judgemental forecasts. Five factors are associated with the degree of engagement of the forecaster in its generation and one is the psychological trait of active open-mindedness. The factors that approximate the engagement level are the number of comments written, the length of these comments, the number of votes received by these comments, the number of updates to the forecast, and the time devoted to creating the fore... show full abstractThis paper examines the influence of six selected factors on the accuracy of judgemental forecasts. Five factors are associated with the degree of engagement of the forecaster in its generation and one is the psychological trait of active open-mindedness. The factors that approximate the engagement level are the number of comments written, the length of these comments, the number of votes received by these comments, the number of updates to the forecast, and the time devoted to creating the forecast. In order to answer these questions, data from the first Czech forecasting tournament was analysed, which was attended by 212 participants who answered 24 geopolitical questions. Three correlation analyses were performed on the dataset of 4942 forecasts. The first for all data jointly, the second for data split by cluster k-means analysis and the third at the level of a single question. Only two factors were found to have a very weak association with forecast accuracy. The paper concludes by discussing possible reasons for these findings. |