Simulations of investing in shares under alternative scenarios

The aim of the bachelor thesis is to compare investment models and scenarios in buying and selling shares of Komerční banka in a specific five-year period of time 2018-2022. For the purpose of this thesis, secondary data were used. First, in the application part, the author values the shares of Komerční banka using four different valuation models, which have been researched in the theoretical basis. Then, based on results of the models, investment recommendations for selling or buying are derived for each individual year. The author asks whether the theoretical models used in this way make sense in the real world. In the last part of the thesis, the author focuses on three different simulations to find out which scenario would give the investor the most value for his assets. In addition to the simulation of investing according to theoretical models, the author also uses a blind simulation, where investments are made every year, regardless of the share price, and a simulation according to the so-called investment recommendations by J&T Bank, a reputable institution that regularly issues recommendations. The five-year closed period for this particular stock showed that, paradoxically, the theoretical economic models performed worst, and even worse than blind investing, while the J&T Bank's investment recommendations would serve the investor best in appreciating his assets.