Is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations moving towards a monetary union?

This thesis examines the potential trajectory of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)/ASEAN+3 towards forming a monetary union. The research focuses on the period from 1987 to 2019, utilizing data from all member countries of the bloc. The objective is to test the hypothesis whether ASEAN+3 can be considered an Optimal Currency Area (OCA) based on defined economic criteria. Methodologically, the work involves literature review, data analysis, correlation analysis, and cluster analysis. The main findings suggest that ASEAN+3 as a whole does not constitute a suitable OCA, primarily due to a significant heterogeneity in the region. Cluster analysis revealed that some countries are more closely related and interconnected. Although this clustering does not itself mean that these groups of countries meet the criteria for a suitable OCA, it indicates a greater potential for forming an OCA among these specifically interconnected groups. Based on the division into three clusters during different periods of the study, the first cluster included countries like Myanmar with no significant relationships, the second included China, Laos, and Cambodia, and the third included Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Japan. The work proposes further research using more sophisticated economeštric methods, which could provide deeper insights into this issue.