Analysis of the impact of tariffs on Spanish olive exports to the US in the context of the EU-US ripe olive dispute

The thesis focuses on analyzing the impact of anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) imposed by the United States of America on imports of table olives from Spain in 2018. These measures were justified by the claim that European subsidies reduce the price of Spanish olives, thus threatening the competitiveness of the domestic US olive industry. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the effects of the AD and CVD imposed on Spanish table olive exports to the US. The research combines regression analysis and analysis of Spanish export and US import data development. Using data from 2015-2023, it assesses changes in the volume and value of Spanish olive exports to the US, examines changes in the competitiveness of Spanish olives in the US market, and identifies changes in the export strategy of Spanish olive exporters. The findings indicate that the implementation of AD and CVD has resulted in a decline in Spanish olive exports and a decline in its position in the US market, with competitors from Morocco and Egypt gaining market share. The analysis also indicates that Spanish exporters have responded to these new trade conditions by redistributing exports to alternative destinations. This thesis contributes to the ongoing discussion on the broader consequences of protectionist measures on international trade, particularly concerning the vulnerability of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) within the global trade landscape and the implications of agricultural subsidies.