Factors influencing energy prices in the USA and the Czech Republic

This thesis focuses on analyzing the factors influencing electricity price volatility for households in the United States and the Czech Republic. The aim is to determine which macroeconomic and energy-related variables contribute to the instability of electricity prices and how their influence differs between two structurally distinct economies. The analysis uses data transformed into annual time series for the period 2000–2023, and applies the method of multivariate linear regression – OLS with robust standard errors (HAC) – to test the relationships between year-on-year changes in electricity prices and variables such as GDP per capita, real interest rates, or the structure of the energy mix. The models are built separately for each country and then compared through comparative analysis. The results show that inflation is a significant factor in both cases, but with opposite effects: while in the U.S., inflation contributes to rising electricity prices, in the Czech Republic, its impact may be dampened by the regulated component of the price. In the Czech model, GDP per capita and oil production are also significant, while in the U.S. model, hydroelectric power production proves to be relevant. The thesis is divided into theoretical and analytical parts. First, the basic theoretical frameworks and current knowledge on electricity price formation are presented, followed by the methodology and description of the data used. The practical part presents the modeling results and the comparative analysis carried out.